Episode 53

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Published on:

19th May 2026

Rafael A. Mangual - Why Killers Walk While Cops Go to Prison | Part 1

Rafael A. Mangual is a senior fellow and head of research at the Manhattan Institute's Policing and Public Safety Initiative, and the author of "Criminal [In]Justice." He is one of the most data-driven and unsparing voices in the national debate on criminal justice policy - a lawyer by training who chose research over the courtroom.

In Part 1 of this conversation, Mangual opens with the two New York cases that frame his entire body of work. NYPD Sergeant Eric Duran was convicted of manslaughter for throwing an empty cooler at a fleeing drug suspect during a buy-bust operation. In the same city, a man calling himself Lucifer slashed three elderly strangers at Grand Central Station despite 13 prior arrests - including a previous knife attack - and remained free. Mangual explains these outcomes are not contradictions but the predictable result of an ideology that treats police as agents of corrupt power while extending unlimited leniency to violent offenders.

Drawing on peer-reviewed research, Mangual walks through the Pareto distribution of criminal offending, a finding replicated in every jurisdiction worldwide, showing that a tiny fraction of repeat offenders commit the vast majority of violent crime. He examines New York's Clean Slate Act, its effects on recidivism data, and the research linking single-parent household rates to criminal offending. Each argument is specific, sourced, and delivered without sentiment.

This is a masterclass in how to win the criminal justice argument with data. The conversation continues Thursday.

Part 2 picks up with what Rafael calls the case that drove him to write the book: Brittany Hill, 24 years old, shot dead on a Chicago sidewalk while shielding her one-year-old daughter, by a man with nine prior felony convictions including murder who was free on parole.

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